As the film industry gears up for the holiday season, Disney’s upcoming release of Moana 2 has begun to generate significant buzz among audiences and industry professionals alike. Early tracking estimates suggest that the sequel could surpass the $100 million mark during its opening weekend, which runs from Wednesday through Sunday of Thanksgiving week. This projected performance could mark a significant resurgence for Disney, who has not had a major animated hit since 2019. If these figures hold true, Moana 2 could not only outshine its predecessor’s opening weekend but also break records within the animated film category during one of the busiest times of the year.
The first installment of Moana, which debuted in 2016, opened with an impressive $82 million over its five-day premiere, eventually earning a total of $248.7 million domestically. In comparison, forecasts for Moana 2, provided by tracking service Quorum, estimate it could exceed the original’s figures, potentially setting a new benchmark for films opening before Thanksgiving. Notably, Disney’s frozen franchise holds the current record for the biggest Thanksgiving opener with Frozen II, which earned $125 million back in 2019. If Moana 2 follows this trajectory, the film could take the title for the best opening day gross of a movie released on the preceding Wednesday of Thanksgiving—currently held by Frozen with its $93.5 million debut.
Demographic insights indicate that Moana 2 is particularly resonating with audiences under the age of 25, mirroring the success of prior hits like Frozen and Inside Out. Interestingly, while male audiences appear to be lukewarm towards the sequel, this hasn’t deterred overall predictions; Disney successfully defied expectations with Inside Out 2, which opened to a stunning $154.2 million. The marketing campaign for Moana 2 has clearly been an effective one, as the first trailer achieved record-breaking viewership—178 million views within the first 24 hours, outpacing previous animated offerings like Inside Out 2 and Frozen 2.
However, the film’s success won’t come without challenges. Over the Thanksgiving weekend, Moana 2 will be competing for screen space with other major releases, such as Universal’s Wicked: Part One and Paramount’s Gladiator II. This competition for IMAX screens is pivotal, as it can severely impact overall box office numbers. Additionally, the forecasts from Quorum align well with their historical predictions for previous high-profile films, which adds a layer of credibility to their projections.
From a broader perspective, the production and anticipated release of Moana 2 reflect Disney’s strategic efforts to rebuild its animated film presence, especially since transitioning from theatrical releases to digital platforms has shifted audience consumption patterns. Disney CEO Bob Iger’s announcement of Moana 2’s development indicates a responsive strategy to fan demand and nostalgia for beloved characters like Moana and Maui. With a talented team at the helm, the film could very well pave the way for future animated features and revitalize Disney’s foothold in the box office.
While the early forecasts present a promising outlook for Moana 2, the competition and dynamics of the film landscape will play a critical role in determining its eventual success. The combination of strong audience interest, successful marketing strategies, and Disney’s legacy could potentially solidify Moana 2’s place in cinematic history.