Warner Bros/DC’s highly anticipated film, Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom, is set to hit theaters on December 22. With Christmas Day falling on a Monday this year, the film is projected to have a four-day opening weekend of $50M-$60M. While this may seem lower compared to the first Aquaman’s opening weekend of $67.8M, it’s important to remember that the superhero fish had incredible staying power, ultimately becoming the highest-grossing Warner Bros DC movie of all time with $1.1 billion worldwide. However, this time around, Aquaman 2 will face some challenges in certain markets, including China and Russia. Nevertheless, with a lack of major tentpole releases over the Christmas holiday, Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom has a clear path to dominance at the box office.
The first Aquaman film received an A- CinemaScore, indicating that audiences were highly satisfied with the superhero adventure. Aquaman 2 benefits from being the top dog over the Christmas holiday, with few major competitors in the mix. Instead, moviegoers will have the option to choose from a selection of awards season contenders. This lack of direct competition positions Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom for success, as it caters to fans seeking an action-packed cinematic experience during the festive season.
Although Aquaman 2 may not face direct competition from other big-budget blockbusters on its release day, there are a couple of counterprogramming options available. Sony will release the romcom Anyone But You, starring Glen Powell and Sydney Sweeney, while Illumination and Universal will offer the animated bird pic Migration. However, despite these counterprogramming attempts, it’s clear that Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom, along with other upcoming Warner Bros. releases like Wonka and The Color Purple, will reign supreme at the box office during the Christmas frame.
Aquaman 2 has already generated solid unaided awareness among male moviegoers. In unaided awareness polling, respondents mention a movie they want to see without prompting. This suggests that there is considerable interest in the film among its target audience. Furthermore, advance ticket sales were launched early to capitalize on the Black Friday and Cyber Monday shopping frenzy, further boosting the film’s prospects.
Despite the star power of Jason Momoa, who has already made an appearance as a host on Saturday Night Live, the marketing campaign for Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom has yet to reach its full potential. As the release date approaches, it is crucial for the studio to ramp up promotional efforts and create a buzz around the film. A well-executed marketing campaign can significantly impact opening weekend numbers and drive increased box office success.
Last year, Disney/20th Century Studios released Avatar: The Way of Water in the pre-Christmas frame, opening to an impressive $134.1M. Many analysts found it challenging to compare Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom to Avatar due to the latter’s lengthy runtime, which led audiences to opt for premium large format or IMAX viewings. While it may be unfair to draw direct comparisons between the two films, Aquaman’s strong brand recognition and loyal fanbase provide a solid foundation for success.
Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom is poised to make a splash at the box office with an estimated opening weekend of $50M-$60M. While it may not surpass the first film’s initial box office numbers, the sequel has the potential for significant long-term success, just as its predecessor did. With limited competition during the Christmas holiday and a strong audience awareness, Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom has the perfect opportunity to establish itself as a box office powerhouse. However, a more aggressive marketing campaign in the final stretch leading up to the release will be crucial in maximizing the film’s potential.