The film industry has faced significant challenges in recent years, with overlapping strikes and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic limiting the availability of new releases. As a result, it is estimated that the domestic movie box office could experience a staggering loss of one billion dollars in 2024. However, amidst these challenges, a crucial question arises: would the film industry benefit from a redistribution of box office revenue, specifically targeting the top performers? This article aims to explore the case for such a redistribution, highlighting the increasing trend of top-loading in the box office and its detrimental effects on the industry as a whole.
One of the most noticeable distortions resulting from the concurrent rise of COVID-19 lockdowns and the streaming revolution has been the acceleration of extreme top-loading at the box office. In 2023, the three highest-grossing films, namely Barbie, The Super Mario Bros. Movie, and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, collectively generated approximately $1.6 billion in ticket sales. Taking into account an estimated box office total of $9 billion for that year, these three films accounted for a staggering 17.8 percent of the domestic theatrical revenue. While this share is slightly lower than the average of the preceding COVID-distorted years, it remains significantly higher than in the pre-pandemic era.
To gain a deeper understanding of this growing disparity, it is important to consider the box office shares in earlier, healthier years. Between 2015 and 2019, a period that witnessed the success of blockbusters like Black Panther and Jurassic World, the top three films on average accounted for only about 14.5 percent of the box office revenue. In the preceding five years from 2010 to 2014, even with notable hits like Avatar and The Avengers, the top three films accounted for a mere 10.9 percent of the total box office revenue. When comparing these figures to the 2023 share, it becomes evident that last year’s top three films achieved a combined share that was 63 percent higher than that of a dozen years ago.
The significant increase in the concentration of box office revenue towards a select few films can be attributed to various factors. One plausible explanation is the diminished presence of lower- and middle-range films within the market. These films, which used to contribute to a more even distribution of box office revenue, have seemingly disappeared, leaving behind a vacuum that only a limited number of films are filling.
The Loss of Older Viewers and Impact of Social Media
Another influential factor contributing to the growing imbalance is the disappearance of older audiences from movie theaters. As older viewers opt for alternative forms of entertainment or choose to stay home due to various reasons including limited accessibility, their absence leaves a void in the demographic that was once a significant consumer of a diverse range of films. Moreover, the rise of social media has led to an excessive concentration of interest in a select few films, amplifying the monopoly of the top performers while relegating lesser-known films to the periphery.
A closer examination of the numbers reveals the extent of the imbalance within the box office distribution. After subtracting the revenue generated by the top three films in 2023, approximately 580 films shared the remaining $7.4 billion, resulting in an average of $12.7 million per film. Comparatively, in 2010, a larger group of around 650 films achieved an average revenue of approximately $14.5 million. This indicates a disparity of around 14 percent, even without accounting for inflation. Thus, the box office revenue distribution has become increasingly top-heavy, burdening the industry as a whole and hindering the success of the vast majority of films, despite the presence of streaming revenue.
Given the current circumstances and the evident need for change, it is imperative for the film industry to address the growing imbalance in box office revenue distribution. Taking necessary measures to rebalance the system would promote a fairer playing field for all films and filmmakers, allowing for greater diversity and creative freedom within the industry. While trimming the overgrown parts may be met with resistance, it is a crucial step towards ensuring the long-term sustainability and vitality of the film industry as a whole.
The film industry’s box office revenue distribution has become increasingly imbalanced, with a few top films dominating the market and overshadowing the majority of releases. While factors such as the disappearance of lower- and middle-range films, the loss of older viewers, and the influence of social media have contributed to this imbalance, it is vital for the industry to take action and implement measures to restore equilibrium. By rebalancing the box office revenue distribution, the film industry can foster a more inclusive and thriving environment for filmmakers and audiences alike.