AMC’s latest concert movie release, “Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé,” is bucking the trend of the post-Thanksgiving/early December slump at the box office. With a projected global opening of $30-40 million, this film is set to make a splash. As the second movie ever to be widely distributed by an exhibitor, it follows in the footsteps of AMC’s first title, “Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour,” which was a massive success with $250 million worldwide. Even though “Renaissance” may not reach the same heights as its predecessor, it is generating significant interest from Black audiences and older women. This could potentially lead to a $20 million domestic opening weekend and another $20 million abroad.
The Different Appeal of Beyoncé and Taylor Swift
It’s important to recognize that Beyoncé’s appeal is distinct from that of Taylor Swift. While Taylor Swift’s “Eras Tour” enjoyed record-breaking ticket sales and a global phenomenon status, Beyoncé’s “Renaissance” concert tour reached similar financial heights but targeted a different demographic. This divergence is evident in the first-day presales of both concert movies. “Renaissance” generated an estimated $6 million in its first day, significantly less than “Eras Tour’s” impressive $37 million (which eventually grew to $65 million). Despite this disparity, the presales for “Renaissance” at AMC and Regal theaters, known for their popularity among Black moviegoers, are robust. On the other hand, Cinemark, the third-largest theater circuit, is not experiencing the same level of enthusiasm. Still, achieving a wide release concert movie opening between $15-20 million is commendable, considering the performances of past concert films such as Justin Bieber’s “Never Say Never” ($29.5 million) and Michael Jackson’s “This Is It” ($23.2 million).
Beyoncé’s Strategic Advantage
Beyoncé’s “Renaissance” has a distinct advantage in terms of its theatrical exhibition. With access to premium large format (PLF) screens and IMAX, it is poised to deliver an immersive experience for audiences. However, it is worth noting that these screens will also be shared with Toho International’s “Godzilla Minus One.” With 2,539 theaters booked in the US and another 2,780 abroad in 94 territories, “Renaissance” has a widespread international reach. This global appeal, combined with the film’s popularity among Black audiences and older women, bodes well for its initial release.
While there are no reviews available on Rotten Tomatoes for “Renaissance” yet, Deadline’s Katie Campione praised the film, stating that it captures the electrifying energy of Beyoncé’s “Renaissance World Tour.” This positive feedback adds to the growing anticipation for the film’s release. The first weekend will be crucial in determining its success, with key markets including Mexico, the UK, South Africa, Kenya, Australia, and Germany. By targeting these territories, Beyoncé has strategically chosen locations where her fan base is particularly strong.
As a December release, “Renaissance” enters a competitive market. The biggest opening for a movie in this month belongs to Warner Bros.’ “The Last Samurai” in 2003, which garnered $24.2 million. However, Disney’s “Frozen 2” holds the record for the highest-grossing film in its third weekend in early December 2019, earning $35.1 million. It is clear that December releases can achieve significant success, and Beyoncé’s “Renaissance” has the potential to make its mark.
With Disney’s “Wish” failing to make a strong impact in its opening weekend and the Hunger Games sequel predicted to experience a 55% decline, there is an opportunity for “Renaissance” to claim the top spot at the box office. Estimates suggest that the Hunger Games film will gross around $13 million, leaving room for Beyoncé’s concert movie to potentially surpass it. Additionally, Toho’s “Godzilla Minus One” is expected to earn between high single digits to $10 million, while Angel Studios’ sci-fi movie “The Shift” is projected to open in the low single digits.
Although Beyoncé’s “Renaissance” may not reach the same box office heights as Taylor Swift’s “Eras Tour,” it has its own unique appeal and potential for success. With strong presales among Black audiences and older women, a widespread theatrical release, and access to premium screens, the film has several factors working in its favor. As one of the few wide-release concert movies in early December, “Renaissance” has the opportunity to captivate audiences and leave its mark on the genre. Whether it exceeds expectations or faces challenges at the box office, one thing is certain: Beyoncé’s legacy as an unmatched performer continues to evolve.