This weekend, the cinematic landscape primarily revolves around Paramount’s ambitious sequel, “Smile 2.” Early presale indicators suggest that the film will likely earn in the high teens million dollars range. Although tracking figures had initially proposed a stronger debut of over $20 million, the ultimate performance hinges on the reception from Latino and Hispanic audiences—a demographic crucial to elevating this $28 million sequel beyond expectations.
The original “Smile,” which released amid the post-COVID recovery of theaters, serves as a remarkable case study in box office strategy. It debuted to impressive figures of $22.6 million, ultimately grossing $105.9 million domestically and $217.4 million globally. Paramount’s decision to favor a theatrical release over a direct-to-streaming model set a precedent, sharply contrasted by Disney’s more restrained approach with “Hocus Pocus 2,” which found itself relegated to Disney+ despite promising test scores. This window of opportunity was largely due to a scarcity of horror titles at the time, as the industry faced delays and production lags from the pandemic.
“Smile 2” sees the return of Parker Finn, the director and writer who crafted the first film’s intricate narrative. In a notable pivot from the original’s plot, the sequel centers on a pop star, portrayed by Naomi Scott, grappling with sinister occurrences that threaten both her mental state and career. The encroaching horrors serve as a metaphor for the pressures of fame, forcing Scott’s character to confront unresolved issues from her past. Critics have responded positively, with “Smile 2” currently sitting at 86% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes from 36 reviews, although curious about why it has not reached the prior film’s acclaim of 80%.
It’s important to consider the competitive landscape when evaluating “Smile 2″‘s projected performance. The original benefitted from a relative absence of horror films during its initial release, whereas this sequel enters a market with more diverse offerings. Concerns linger about audience fatigue with the genre, evidenced by the commercial performance of other R-rated films such as “Terrifier 3,” which, while achieving a commendable $23.7 million over the five-day period, still faces challenges in sustaining momentum due to genre saturation.
As the weekend unfolds, industry experts will scrutinize audience demographics and their impact on box office outcomes. Currently, “Smile 2” is anticipated to utilize Premium Large Format (PLF) screens within its wide release across 3,500 theaters. Interestingly, the IMAX locations are unavailable due to a three-week engagement with the Warner Bros. film “Joker: Folie a Deux.” Industry analysts predict the sequel’s performance could be affected by this limitation.
The outcomes from this weekend will shed light on whether “Smile 2” can build upon the legacy of its predecessor or if it will face a harsher reality at the box office. As it stands, the film’s initial reception and demographic engagement will be pivotal in determining its path forward in theaters.